So far, Mateen is reported to have pledged loyalty to Isis, which would indicate a degree of ignorance and, most likely, relatively recent radicalisation.Ī final lesson from previous attacks involving lone wolves is that they are very rarely as lone as they look. People involved with groups such as al-Qaida and Isis swear allegiance to a leader, not the organisation, which follows Arab, Islamic and other customs. One indication of Mateen’s level of knowledge will be the wording of the pledge that he made. One way to attract the attention that all terrorist groups crave is to seek out targets that have hitherto remained unscathed. It has also pushed the boundaries of brutality in order to continue to shock people. However, groups evolve, and Isis has a history of attacks on gay people that is worse than that of many other extremist groups. This does not rule out direct Isis involvement, but makes it less likely. We have seen strikes on trains, buses and airplanes, at embassies, schools, shopping malls, nightclubs, airports, bars, concert halls and stadiums, as well as a vast range of other targets, but nothing previously directed at a venue similar to Pulse, the club in Orlando where the attack took place. Though the history of Islamic militancy in recent years has been marked by profound homophobia and violence directed at gay individuals, it has not generally involved mass casualty attacks on targets associated with the gay community whether in bars and clubs or at parades. It can be usefully contrasted with the claim of responsibility following the attacks in Paris, which included details that could only be known to someone intimately involved in the planning.Ī second indication that the Orlando attack may have been inspired rather than directed by Isis is the target. This appears credible, but the brevity suggests that the group had no prior knowledge of the operation and that it was conducted by a “lone wolf”. A short statement said the operation had been carried out by an “Islamic State fighter”. On Sunday, a news agency associated with Isis also claimed the Orlando attack. This suggests that Isis felt clearly that the fact that it was inspiring distant attackers was worth emphasising as a vindication of its ideology and strategy, as well to inspire greater fear among Americans. Isis also made it clear that the shooting had not been commissioned by senior commanders in the Middle East, as was the case with the Paris attacks in November. This was in line with the longstanding Isis strategy of seeking to inspire sympathisers to do whatever they can wherever they find themselves, particularly if they are unable to perform their duty of hijra (migration) and relocate to the caliphate. Isis subsequently accepted that pledge, though it came from two individuals who had no previous contact with the group, and thus accepted responsibility – as well as credit among supporters of Islamic militancy – for the attack.